scopone/src/game/ai-h2h-diagnose.ts

/**
 * Diagnostic H2H: logs category breakdown for every LOSS (master difficulty).
 * Run with: npx tsx src/game/ai-h2h-diagnose.ts
 */

import { chooseMove } from './ai';
import { chooseMove as chooseMoveOld } from './ai-legacy';
import { CardTracker } from './card-tracker';
import { CardInferenceEngine } from './card-inference';
import { applyMove, teamOf, nextPlayer, createInitialState, getMatchOutcome } from './engine';
import { AIMove, Difficulty, GameState, PlayerIndex } from './types';

function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {
  let s = seed >>> 0;
  return () => {
    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0;
    let t = Math.imul(s ^ (s >>> 15), s | 1);
    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61);
    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
  };
}
function seedFromParts(...parts: number[]): number {
  let h = 2166136261;
  for (const p of parts) { h ^= p >>> 0; h = Math.imul(h, 16777619); }
  return h >>> 0;
}
function simulatedTiming() {
  let t = 0;
  return { now: () => t, advance: (ms: number) => { t += ms; return t; }, isSimulated: true as const };
}

interface MatchDetail {
  seed: number;
  newAITeam: 0 | 1;
  result: 'new' | 'old' | 'draw';
  newPts: number;
  oldPts: number;
  // cumulative per-match category wins: +1 new won, -1 old won, 0 tied
  carte: number;    // +1 = new won
  denari: number;
  settebello: number;
  primiera: number;
  scopeNew: number;
  scopeOld: number;
}

async function runMatch(
  difficulty: Difficulty,
  seed: number,
  newAITeam: 0 | 1,
): Promise<MatchDetail> {
  const SUITE_KEY = 0xabcd1234;
  const MAX_ROUNDS = 20;
  const initialDealer = (seed % 4) as PlayerIndex;
  let state = createInitialState(
    initialDealer,
    mulberry32(seedFromParts(SUITE_KEY, seed, 1, 0)),
  );
  const matchStartingPlayer = state.matchStartingPlayer;
  const tracker = new CardTracker();
  const inference = new CardInferenceEngine(tracker);
  let rounds = 1;
  let turn = 0;

  // Cumulative category wins across all rounds
  let carte = 0, denari = 0, settebello = 0, primiera = 0;
  let scopeNew = 0, scopeOld = 0;

  while (rounds <= MAX_ROUNDS) {
    while (!state.roundOver) {
      const playerIdx = state.currentPlayer;
      const isNew = teamOf(playerIdx) === newAITeam;
      const timing = simulatedTiming();
      const rng = mulberry32(seedFromParts(SUITE_KEY, seed, rounds, turn, playerIdx));

      const move: AIMove = isNew
        ? await chooseMove(state, playerIdx, difficulty, tracker, undefined, { rng, timingSource: timing, inference })
        : await chooseMoveOld(state, playerIdx, difficulty, tracker, undefined, { rng, timingSource: timing });

      const tableBeforeMove = [...state.table];
      const { nextState, capture } = applyMove(
        state, playerIdx, move.card,
        move.capture.length > 0 ? move.capture : undefined,
      );
      tracker.trackPlay(move.card);
      if (capture) tracker.trackCapture(capture.captured);
      inference.onMove(playerIdx, move, tableBeforeMove);
      state = nextState;
      turn++;
    }

    // Accumulate per-round category outcomes
    const ts = state.teamScores;
    const newT = newAITeam;
    const oldT = (1 - newAITeam) as 0 | 1;

    // Cards
    const newCards = ts[newT].cards, oldCards = ts[oldT].cards;
    if (newCards > 20) carte += 1;
    else if (oldCards > 20) carte -= 1;

    // Denari
    const newDen = ts[newT].denari, oldDen = ts[oldT].denari;
    if (newDen >= 6) denari += 1;
    else if (oldDen >= 6) denari -= 1;

    // Settebello
    settebello += ts[newT].settebello ? 1 : -1;

    // Primiera
    const newPrim = ts[newT].primiera, oldPrim = ts[oldT].primiera;
    if (newPrim > oldPrim) primiera += 1;
    else if (oldPrim > newPrim) primiera -= 1;

    // Scope this round
    scopeNew += ts[newT].scope;
    scopeOld += ts[oldT].scope;

    const outcome = getMatchOutcome(state.teamScores);
    if (!outcome.continueMatch) break;
    if (rounds === MAX_ROUNDS) break;

    rounds++;
    const totals: [number, number] = [state.teamScores[0].totalPoints, state.teamScores[1].totalPoints];
    tracker.reset();
    inference.reset();
    state = createInitialState(
      nextPlayer(state.dealer),
      mulberry32(seedFromParts(SUITE_KEY, seed, rounds, 0)),
    );
    state.matchStartingPlayer = matchStartingPlayer;
    state.teamScores[0].totalPoints = totals[0];
    state.teamScores[1].totalPoints = totals[1];
    state.roundNumber = rounds;
  }

  const outcome = getMatchOutcome(state.teamScores);
  const result = outcome.winner === null ? 'draw' : outcome.winner === newAITeam ? 'new' : 'old';

  return {
    seed,
    newAITeam,
    result,
    newPts: state.teamScores[newAITeam].totalPoints,
    oldPts: state.teamScores[1 - newAITeam as 0 | 1].totalPoints,
    carte, denari, settebello, primiera, scopeNew, scopeOld,
  };
}

async function main() {
  const SEEDS = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => 3000 + i);
  const SWAPS = [0, 1] as const;
  const difficulty: Difficulty = 'master';

  const losses: MatchDetail[] = [];
  const wins: MatchDetail[] = [];
  let done = 0;
  const total = SEEDS.length * SWAPS.length;

  console.log(`\nDIAGNOSTIC ${difficulty.toUpperCase()} — ${total} matches\n`);

  for (const seed of SEEDS) {
    for (const newAITeam of SWAPS) {
      const d = await runMatch(difficulty, seed, newAITeam);
      if (d.result === 'old') losses.push(d);
      else wins.push(d);
      done++;
      if (done % 10 === 0 || done === total) {
        console.log(`  [${done}/${total}] wins=${wins.length} losses=${losses.length}`);
      }
    }
  }

  // --- Per-match loss report ---
  console.log(`\n=== LOSSES (${losses.length}) ===`);
  console.log(`${'seed'.padEnd(6)} ${'team'.padEnd(5)} ${'score'.padEnd(8)} ${'carte'.padEnd(7)} ${'denari'.padEnd(8)} ${'sette'.padEnd(7)} ${'prim'.padEnd(6)} ${'scopeN'.padEnd(8)} ${'scopeO'}`);
  for (const d of losses) {
    const score = `${d.newPts}-${d.oldPts}`;
    const sign = (n: number) => n > 0 ? '+new' : n < 0 ? '+old' : 'tie';
    console.log(
      `${String(d.seed).padEnd(6)} t${d.newAITeam}    ${score.padEnd(8)} ` +
      `${sign(d.carte).padEnd(7)} ${sign(d.denari).padEnd(8)} ${sign(d.settebello).padEnd(7)} ` +
      `${sign(d.primiera).padEnd(6)} ${String(d.scopeNew).padEnd(8)} ${d.scopeOld}`,
    );
  }

  // --- Aggregate: across all losses, how often did legacy win each category? ---
  console.log('\n=== CATEGORY LOSS FREQUENCY (across all lost matches) ===');
  const countOldWon = (arr: MatchDetail[], key: keyof Pick<MatchDetail, 'carte'|'denari'|'settebello'|'primiera'>) =>
    arr.filter(d => (d[key] as number) < 0).length;
  const categories = ['carte', 'denari', 'settebello', 'primiera'] as const;
  for (const cat of categories) {
    const oldWins = countOldWon(losses, cat);
    const newWins = losses.filter(d => (d[cat] as number) > 0).length;
    const tied = losses.length - oldWins - newWins;
    console.log(`  ${cat.padEnd(12)}: old won ${oldWins}/${losses.length}, new won ${newWins}/${losses.length}, tied ${tied}/${losses.length}`);
  }
  const avgScopeGap = losses.reduce((s, d) => s + (d.scopeOld - d.scopeNew), 0) / (losses.length || 1);
  console.log(`  ${'scope gap'.padEnd(12)}: avg old advantage ${avgScopeGap.toFixed(2)} scopa/match`);

  // --- Same for wins, to compare ---
  console.log('\n=== CATEGORY WIN FREQUENCY (across all won matches) ===');
  for (const cat of categories) {
    const newWins = wins.filter(d => (d[cat] as number) > 0).length;
    const oldWins = wins.filter(d => (d[cat] as number) < 0).length;
    const tied = wins.length - newWins - oldWins;
    console.log(`  ${cat.padEnd(12)}: new won ${newWins}/${wins.length}, old won ${oldWins}/${wins.length}, tied ${tied}/${wins.length}`);
  }
  const avgScopeGapW = wins.reduce((s, d) => s + (d.scopeNew - d.scopeOld), 0) / (wins.length || 1);
  console.log(`  ${'scope gap'.padEnd(12)}: avg new advantage ${avgScopeGapW.toFixed(2)} scopa/match`);
}

main().catch(console.error);